Probability, Chance, and the Death of Herod Antipas

Posted July 27, 2018 4:40 am by Anthony S. Layne

Probability, Chance, and the Death of Herod Antipas

When I first read Bob Drury’s article, “Bayesian Reasoning in Religious Studies”, I remarked to him tongue-in-cheek that Bayesian reasoning proves the reports of Powerball jackpot winners to be inauthentic because the probability of anyone drawing the winning number combination is nearly zero—3.4223 × 10-9, to be precise. Drury’s essay shows how Dr. Rafael Lataster’s “Bayesian reasoning” is a misuse of mathematics in Biblical criticism. My concern here is how Lataster’s use of probability reflects a general misunderstanding of what probability really represents, especially as it appears in arguments between theists and antitheists.
No Probability without Possibility
Of course, we know people

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