Probability, Chance, and the Death of Herod Antipas
When I first read Bob Drury’s article, “Bayesian Reasoning in Religious Studies”, I remarked to him tongue-in-cheek that Bayesian reasoning proves the reports of Powerball jackpot winners to be inauthentic because the probability of anyone drawing the winning number combination is nearly zero—3.4223 × 10-9, to be precise. Drury’s essay shows how Dr. Rafael Lataster’s “Bayesian reasoning” is a misuse of mathematics in Biblical criticism. My concern here is how Lataster’s use of probability reflects a general misunderstanding of what probability really represents, especially as it appears in arguments between theists and antitheists.
No Probability without Possibility
Of course, we know people